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THE TICKER

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President Trump is over-promising to farmers as his administering looks abreast to under-deliver. 

The expectations corruption sets up a reckoning with a key voting affiliation that is already disconnected on the president’s beforehand to rip up barter alliances in chase of bigger terms.  

Trump is heralding the barter accord he addled aftermost anniversary with European Commission Admiral Jean-Claude Juncker as a “breakthrough,” cogent an Iowa assemblage aftermost Thursday that he “just opened up Europe for you farmers.” 

Not so, European admiral say. “On agriculture, I anticipate we’ve been actual bright on that — that agronomics is out of the ambit of these discussions,” a European Commission adumbrative said Friday, per the Bank Street Journal. 

In fact, the world’s two bigger economies are agreeable on a brace of agronomical issues. But European moves on both fronts predate aftermost week’s summit. The two abandon are continuing advancing negotiations adjoin appropriation European barriers to high-end American beef. And the Europeans are talking up their absorbed to buy added American soybeans, although they already bare added of the artefact and acceptable won’t accomplish up for orders the Chinese accept canceled as allotment of their barter action with the Trump administration. 

More from the Journal:

“Agriculture is one of the best acute and difficult barter questions for Europe, abnormally for France, and the U.S. and Europe accept fought for years over aggregate from European tariffs to U.S. use of hormones and genetically adapted products. They say that aback Trump aides approved to augment the talks from automated articles to agriculture, they threatened to appeal the U.S. bead its ‘Buy American’ provisions for government procurement, a non-starter for the Trump administration.

The U.S. ancillary ‘heavily insisted to admit the accomplished acreage of agronomical products,’ Mr. Juncker told reporters appropriate afterwards the meeting. ‘We banned that because I don’t accept a authorization and that’s a actual acute affair in Europe.’”

Meanwhile, the administration’s $12 billion plan to bond out farmers bent in the assessment battery won’t actually atone them for the accident they suffer, Agronomics Secretary Sonny Perdue said over the weekend. “Obviously this is not action to accomplish farmers whole,” Perdue told Reuters on Saturday from a G-20 affair in Buenos Aires. But he said up to $8 billion in absolute banknote payments to farmers will go out “in backward September or October” — so growers will see some abatement afore Election Day.

Farmer Mark Klinger poses for a account on his tractor at his acreage in Pecatonica, Ill. (Reuters/Joshua Lott)

Of course, Trump’s action with Europe alone represents one action in a multi-front war. The administering is assertive to abide ascent its action with China by arty addition $16 billion in tariffs on Chinese imports, and Beijing has apprenticed to acknowledge in kind. And it charcoal in scrapes with Japan, Canada, Mexico and Turkey. 

Farmers angle on the bulk are mixed. A abbreviate majority apprehend concise affliction from Trump’s tariffs, a new CBS poll shows — but by the aforementioned allowance as all Americans. Farmers are added optimistic than the broader electorate that the duties will beforehand to bigger deals long-term, admitting they are disconnected on the question, with 41 percent assured bigger deals and 42 percent assured worse ones. 

Some aren’t giving the admiral the account of the doubt. “I am a agriculturalist and a Trump supporter. I accede that China needs to be punished for burglary patented U.S. technology. But aperture a new advanced in this barter war, while aggravating to abate the blowback on farmers with a Abundant Depression-era alteration program, is not the appropriate approach,” Kalena Bruce, a fifth-generation rancher, wrote in The Washington Post aftermost week. “It is the bread-and-butter agnate of alleviative a hangnail by acid off your finger.”

Brian Duncan, an Illinois hog farmer, told Fox Business that the president’s promises leave too abundant uncertainty. “There’s aloof so abounding unknowns, and aloof like with the aid amalgamation the admiral appear on Tuesday, you know, we don’t apperceive abundant of the capacity yet to say how that’s action to benefit” farmers, he said.

Other Trump admiral haven’t gone as far as the admiral in proclaiming the administering has already delivered a win to farmers. But they aren’t tamping bottomward Trump’s boast, either. 

Top White Abode barter adviser Peter Navarro said aftermost week’s affair yielded “a abundant achievement for this country.” And he apprenticed Americans to put the barter action with Europe in the ambience of its action with China. “What we would ask as an administering is bodies to see the chessboard, that China is aggravating to authority us hostage. They rob our house, and we try to stop them, and now they’re blowing our farmers,” Navarro told NPR. 

Vice Admiral Pence is waiving off apropos from Republican assembly that farmers and others are address the bulk of the barter war. “We account associates of Congress; we account them continuing up for absorption in their district; but we’re beholden for the abutment they provided for the President’s agenda,” he told Fox News’s Maria Bartiromo. “And we abide assured that as we displace the antithesis in those trading relationships, that it’s action to win for their districts and win for America.”

TRUMP TRACKER

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TRADE FLY-AROUND:

Top White Abode bread-and-butter adviser Larry Kudlow at the White Abode in Washington on June 27. (Jabin Botsford/The Washington Post)

— China accessible to talks. Bloomberg: “Wang Yi may be China’s top diplomat, but on Monday he articulate added like the country’s arch academician of economics. The Chinese adopted abbot took advantage of a appointment by his U.K. analogue to accord the U.S. a biting economics lesson, adage American behavior were to accusation for the country’s barter arrears and the collapse of talks… Wang’s aggressive animadversion underscored abysmal capacity amid the two abandon with aloof a ages afore the accessible animadversion ends on [Trump’s] angle to burden tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods. While American and Chinese admiral accept hinted at the achievability of restarting talks, it’s been about two months they aftermost captivated high-level negotiations… Still, he said that China was accommodating to resume talks with the U.S. if the altitude were right. ‘China’s aperture of chat and agreement charcoal open, but any chat charge be based on adequation and alternate respect,’ Wang said.”

Kudlow blames China. Politico’s David Beavers: Kudlow “on Sunday adamantly dedicated [Trump’s] use of targeted tariffs adjoin China, while insisting the admiral ultimately ‘wants to accept no tariffs’ on the European Union. ‘You know, if they’re targeted for acceptable purpose, as per China, I anticipate the acknowledgment is actually yes,’ Larry Kudlow said of arty barter duties during an account on CNN’s ‘State of the Union.’ ‘That’s consistently been my view. Best chargeless traders agree. China has not played by the rules. And the trading arrangement is broken, abundantly because of them.’ ”

— Animate tariffs spawn backlash. The Associated Press’s Richard Lardner: “U.S. companies gluttonous to be exempted from [Trump’s] assessment on alien animate are accusing American animate manufacturers of overextension inaccurate and ambiguous information, and they abhorrence it may abate their requests. Robert Miller, admiral and CEO of NLMK USA, said objections aloft by U.S. Animate and Nucor to his bid for a abandonment are ‘literal untruths.’ He said his company, which imports huge slabs of animate from Russia, has already paid $80 actor in duties and will be affected out of business if it isn’t absolved from the 25 percent tariff. U.S. Animate and Nucor are two of the country’s bigger animate producers. ‘They care to be abashed of themselves,’ said Miller, who employs added than 1,100 bodies at mills in Pennsylvania and Indiana. Miller’s resentment, echoed by several added executives, is affirmation of the backfire over how the Commerce Administration is evaluating their requests to abstain the assignment on animate imports. They abhorrence the bureau will be affected by action from U.S. Steel, Nucor and added calm animate suppliers that say they’ve been unfairly aching by a excess of imports and aback Trump’s tariff.”

Tariffs hit consumers. The Bank Street Journal’s Patrick McGroarty and Bob Tita: “Consumers are advantageous added for articles from recreational cartage to soda as tariffs on metals and genitalia put burden on U.S. manufacturers. U.S. animate and aluminum prices are up 33% and 11% appropriately aback the alpha of the year, as producers and their barter began to bulk in the tariffs that the Trump administering aboriginal activated on foreign-made metal in March. Tariffs on a host of added alien articles from China this ages accept added costs for companies that use those apparatus to accumulate their articles in the U.S.”

BMW will accession prices. Reuters’s Norihiko Shirouzu: “German carmaker BMW said it will accession the prices of two U.S.-made crossover sport-utility cartage in China to cope with the added bulk of tariffs on U.S. car imports into the world’s better auto market. In a move due to booty aftereffect on Monday, BMW said in a account to Reuters over the weekend that it will access maker-suggested retail prices of the popular, almost high-margin X5 and X6 SUV models by 4 percent to 7 percent. The ante of access beforehand that BMW is accommodating to blot abundant of the college costs stemming from bringing the SUVs to China from its branch in South Carolina, accent the angry antagonism amid affluence car brands in China.”

— Koch accumulation chides White House. The Washington Post’s Michelle Ye Hee Lee: “Top admiral with the donor arrangement affiliated with billionaire baron Charles Koch this weekend approved to ambit the arrangement from the Republican Party and [Trump], citation assessment and clearing behavior and ‘divisive’ rhetoric out of Washington. At a acquisition of hundreds of donors at the Broadmoor resort here, admiral common their affairs to absorb as abundant as $400 actor on action issues and political campaigns during the 2018 cycle. Beforehand this year, they appear abundant spending on allowance Republicans authority the Senate. But in a admonishing attempt to Trump and the GOP, arrangement co-chair Brian Hooks lamented ‘tremendous abridgement of leadership’ in Trump’s Washington and the ‘deterioration of the bulk institutions of society.’ He declared out the White Abode and Trump-allied GOP lawmakers, decidedly over barter action and added federal spending, and added that ‘the altercation of this White Abode is causing abiding damage.’”

MELTDOWN WATCH:

MARKET MOVERS

Federal Reserve Lath Chair Jerome H. Powell testifies on Capitol Hill in Washington on July 18. (Jacquelyn Martin/AP)

— Fed considers abutting steps. WSJ’s Nick Timiraos: “Most Federal Reserve admiral accede on the aisle for absorption ante over almost the abutting year: beforehand with bit-by-bit increases until borrowing costs ability a akin that neither slows nor spurs growth. The big question, however, is what to do afterwards accepting to that declared aloof setting. The acknowledgment will abundantly depend on how aggrandizement behaves as unemployment falls, and they are poring over contempo analysis for clues. The studies beforehand prices ability ascend faster, but not too much, if unemployment avalanche a bit more. And aggrandizement ability become awkward if dawdling avalanche a lot more. The action makers are acceptable to leave their criterion bulk banausic aback their two-day action affair concludes Wednesday and delay until September for their abutting increase.”

Will Trump respond? Compass Point’s Isaac Boltansky says maybe: “If the FOMC holds, which is the bazaar apprehension as apparent by futures bazaar activity, again the admiral could conceivably accept to booty a accessible achievement lap. We abide to accept that the president’s budgetary action jawboning will not adapt the FOMC’s normalization trajectory, but the connected babble could drive banderole animation and possibly bolster calls for added axial coffer transparency.”

Beacon Action Advisors says no: “We do not apprehend this blazon of hectoring to become a approved accident or a focal point of his Twitter calendar unless and until the abridgement active into a downturn, at which point he is awful acceptable to acknowledgment to this criticism and seek to avert accusation assimilate the Fed for snuffing out bread-and-butter beforehand with its absorption bulk hikes, while he was attempting to pump up the abridgement with budgetary bang and a deregulatory agenda.”

Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin (AP Photo/Victor R. Caivano)

Mnuchin endorses bulk hikes. Bloomberg News’s Rich Miller: “Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin appropriate on Sunday it was accomplished for the Federal Reserve to be adopting absorption rates, afterwards his boss… afresh criticized the axial coffer for accomplishing aloof that. Mnuchin agreed in acknowledgment to a catechism that it was amenable for Fed Chair Jerome Powell and his colleagues to be accretion ante as the abridgement grows faster and aggrandizement picks up. ‘The Fed has been targeting 2 percent inflation,’ Mnuchin said on ‘Fox News Sunday.’ ‘Obviously, with 2 percent aggrandizement we accept to accept at atomic hardly college absorption ante to administer through that.’ ”

And is optimistic about GDP. Reuters: “Mnuchin said on Sunday that he believes the dispatch clip of beforehand in the nation’s abridgement in the additional division will abide for the abutting few years. ‘I don’t anticipate this is a one- or two-year phenomenon. I anticipate we absolutely are in a aeon of four or bristles years of abiding 3 percent beforehand at least,’ Mnuchin said in an account with ‘Fox News Sunday.’ ”

— Banal bazaar holds on. WSJ’s Akane Otani: “The ample U.S. banal bazaar is aural 2% of a new aerial admitting big drops by some of the technology giants that accept powered contempo gains, abating investors that the nine-year assemblage charcoal on close basement to abide its run. For months, analysts and investors accept been debating whether a banal bazaar whose assets accept abundantly been apprenticed by a scattering of technology companies may be accountable to a abrupt reversal. They accept already witnessed several big selloffs in contempo days: Facebook Inc. wiped out added than $100 billion in bazaar assets Thursday afterwards admonishing its beforehand was slowing, while Netflix Inc. tumbled beforehand this ages afterwards missing its own forecasts for user beforehand by added than a actor subscribers. Twitter Inc. and Intel Corp. slid Friday afterwards advertisement black earnings. Yet through abundant of those shock waves, the broader banal bazaar has remained resilient.”

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POCKET CHANGE

President Trump at the White Abode in Washington  on July 27. (Evan Vucci/AP)

— CEOs see huge tax-cut payday. Politico’s Patrick Temple-West and Victoria Guida. “Some of the better winners from Admiral Donald Trump’s new tax law are accumulated admiral who accept reaped assets as their companies buy aback a almanac bulk of stock, a convenance that rewards shareholders by advocacy the amount of absolute shares. A Politico analysis of abstracts appear in SEC filings shows the executives, who generally accept best of their advantage in stock, accept been profiting amply by affairs shares aback Trump active the law on Dec. 22 and bargain accumulated tax ante to 21 percent. That trend is acceptable to access as Bank Street analysts apprehend acknowledgment action to beforehand in the advancing weeks…

“Since the tax cuts were enacted, Oracle Corp. CEO Safra Catz awash $250 actor account of shares in her aggregation — the bigger controlling payday this year. Artefact development arch Thomas Kurian awash $85 million. The sales came afterwards the aggregation appear a $12 billion allotment repurchase. Mastercard CEO Ajay Banga awash $44.4 actor of banal in May, the bigger distinct cash-out by an controlling of the aggregation in at atomic 10 years, months afterwards the aggregation appear a $4 billion acknowledgment of its own stock. Two canicule afterwards Eastman Chemical appear it would acquirement $2 billion of its own stock, CEO Mark Costa awash 55,000 shares for $5.4 million.”

— CBS to barrage investigation. WSJ’s Keach Hagey and Joe Flint: “Some CBS Corp. admiral discussed over the weekend whether Arch Controlling Leslie Moonves should footfall abreast from the aggregation awaiting its analysis into allegations he sexually addled women . . . The lath of CBS, which is appointed to accommodated via appointment alarm Monday in beforehand of its second-quarter balance advertisement Thursday, is accepted to baddest a appropriate lath to baby-sit the analysis . . . The lath intends to accomplish a ample analysis into CBS’s abode culture, not aloof the declared behavior of Mr. Moonves . . . The analysis is in acknowledgment to a New Yorker commodity appear Friday, in which six women who had able affairs with Mr. Moonves amid the 1980s and backward 2000s claimed he sexually addled them. The adventure agitated accusations that CBS tolerates systemic aggravation adjoin women.”

— AmEx aloft prices afterwards warning. WSJ’s AnnaMarie Andriotis: “For added than a decade, American Express Co.’s foreign-exchange assemblage recruited business admirers with offers of low currency-conversion ante afore agilely adopting their prices, according to bodies accustomed with the matter. AmEx’s foreign-exchange all-embracing payments administration commonly added about-face ante afterwards advice barter in a bid to addition acquirement and agent commissions, the bodies said. The practice, boundless aural the forex department, was occurring until aboriginal this year and dates aback to at atomic 2004, the bodies said. The convenance targeted mostly baby and midsize businesses, the bodies said, a accumulation of barter that accounts for about a division of the company’s credit-card revenue. AmEx, one of the bigger small-business agenda issuers in the U.S., beforehand this year said it hoped to become the arch payments and working-capital provider for baby and middle-market companies.”

— Walmart struggles adjoin Amazon. Reuters’s Nandita Bose: “Standing afore an admirers of 14,000 bodies aftermost year, Walmart Inc admiral declared a abolitionist plan to advice it bulwark off Amazon.com Inc and added online commitment casework from burglary its customers. Walmart’s own abundance advisers would accompany online orders anon to shoppers’ homes afterwards commutual their accepted accouterment of up to nine hours on the sales floors. Aiming to lower the retailer’s aircraft costs by borer its massive workforce, the affairs was allotment of a multi-pronged action to addition its $11.5 billion U.S. ecommerce business and accouterment one of the better challenges in retail: the declared ‘last mile’ of carrying appurtenances to online customers. … But months later, Walmart agilely aloof from its aboriginal eyes for the pilot affairs – launched in New Jersey and Arkansas – and concluded it altogether in January, according to aggregation abstracts acquired by Reuters and interviews with added than two dozen Walmart employees.” (Amazon.com architect and arch controlling Jeffrey P. Bezos owns The Post.)

MONEY ON THE HILL

President Trump congratulates Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) on the access of tax cuts while Abode Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wisc.), looks on aftermost year. (AP Photo/Manuel Balce Ceneta)

— Trump threatens shutdown. The Post’s Philip Rucker, Robert Costa and Damian Paletta: “Trump threatened Sunday to shut bottomward the federal government this abatement if Congress does not canyon across-the-board changes to clearing laws, including abduction added accessible money to body his long-promised bound wall. ‘I would be accommodating to “shut down” government if the Democrats do not accord us the votes for Bound Security, which includes the Wall!’ Trump tweeted. ‘Must get rid of Lottery, Catch & Release etc. and assuredly go to arrangement of Clearing based on MERIT! We charge abundant bodies advancing into our Country!’ Trump’s abeyance admonishing — which he has fabricated afore — escalates the stakes advanced of a Sept. 30 government allotment deadline, adopting the achievability of a political showdown afore the Nov. 6 midterm elections that Republican aldermanic leaders had hoped to avoid. A allotment action additionally could prove a aberration from Republican efforts in the Senate to affirm Trump Supreme Court appointee Brett M. Kavanaugh by Oct. 1.”

DAYBOOK

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THE FUNNIES

A 2014 New Yorker animation from Barbara Smaller:

BULL SESSION

An articulate history of Sen. John McCain’s “thumbs down” vote adjoin repealing Obamacare:

Russians assemblage adjoin alimony reform:

Deadly California blaze continues to blaze:

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