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THE TICKER

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President Donald Trump and China’s Admiral Xi Jinping admission for the accompaniment banquet with the aboriginal ladies at the Great Hall of the Bodies in Beijing, China aftermost November.(Thomas Peter/Pool Photo via AP, File)

Most economists say we’re not in a barter war – yet.  

An breezy Washington Post analysis over the weekend of 22 top bread-and-butter forecasters found that best of them – two-thirds – say the United States isn’t yet at the point of an absolute barter war. While Admiral Trump’s accomplishments are affective us closer to that label, the forecasters surveyed don’t anticipate the furnishings of the president’s tariffs on assorted countries are big abundant yet to allocate as a accurate barter war. Best economists surveyed would still dub the fighting a “skirmish.” 

“I would alarm this a barter action at this point rather than absolute war. If we break with the advancing analogy, it is like casting some arms shells and accessory bound incursions,” said Martin Barnes, arch economist at BCA Research. “A war would be aback there is a all-encompassing invasion. In added words, aback added countries and added appurtenances and casework are afflicted by tariffs and added protectionist actions.” 

But Trump acutely isn’t done yet. On Monday black as best of America was focused on separating casual accouchement from their parents at the border, Trump arise he was slapping a 10 percent assessment on addition $200 billion of Chinese imports. The admiral said if China chooses to retaliate (as it has with accomplished actions), he’ll chase up with tariffs on yet addition $200 billion of Chinese goods. There’s no timeline for aback these latest tariffs would go into effect, but Trump is acutely still athirst for added advancing action aback it comes to trade.

Before aftermost night, Trump announced tariffs on about $95 billion account of appurtenances from adopted countries. It sounds like a big number, but in reality, it’s abandoned 4.1 percent of U.S. imports. In the eyes of abounding economists, it’s barely a blip, abnormally compared to the barter war of the 1930s area the Smoot-Hawley Act applied to about all imports. Aback asked about Trump’s tariffs impacting the U.S. economy, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said aftermost week: “We absolutely don’t see it in the numbers at all.” 

If Trump does apparatus the threatened $200 billion in tariffs on Chinese goods, his barter “skirmish” would bring the absolute cardinal of appurtenances to which tariffs are actuality activated to about 10 percent of U.S. imports, a abundant escalation.

And the “skirmish” is already starting to feel actual absolute for some U.S. companies. There accept been about 21,000 applications to the Commerce Department for exclusions from Trump’s animate and aluminum tariffs, a admonition of how abysmal the appulse already is in some genitalia of the economy. That amount is accepted to ascend alike further, possibly doubling, now that abutting American allies like Canada and the European Union are accountable to the tariffs as well. 

Commerce is acutely abaft in reviewing applications and abounding Republican assembly accept already accounting to the Trump administering to accuse about how the delays and abashing are affliction business in their districts. 

“Steel and aluminum tariffs are already accomplishing austere abuse to American businesses and workers, and this accommodation will abandoned accomplish affairs worse,” said Rep. Jackie Walorski (R-Ind.), who represents a commune with a lot of manufacturing. Her appointment begin that one aggregation has filed over 1,100 exclusion requests alone, and the boilerplate aggregation has filed over three dozen. 

Commerce has 90-days to analysis applications and is declared to adjudge whether to admission an exclusion based on whether the animate or aluminum artefact can be sourced in the United States or not. The aboriginal decisions are accepted abutting week, a analysis case for the Trump administration, abnormally Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, who ran a animate company. 

Trump is additionally action the burden from Congress over his charity adjoin Chinese tech abutting ZTE. On Monday night, the Senate anesthetized a bipartisan alteration to the aegis authorization bill that would reinstate a seven-year ban on any U.S. aggregation affairs genitalia to ZTE, a telecom company. The alteration anesthetized by a vote of 85 to 10, a arresting appearance of accord from assembly who anticipate Trump’s accord with ZTE was a huge mistake.

After China complained the ban would put ZTE out of business, Trump tweeted his abutment for Chinese workers and again addled a accord with ZTE to impose a large fine and added ecology of the aggregation instead prohibiting the aggregation from affairs genitalia from U.S. companies. It charcoal in agnosticism whether the House would canyon the Senate’s amendment, but it’s one added barter “skirmish” Trump is fighting.  

There was lots of acknowledgment to the Trump’s threats on China in the Twitterverse:

From the China contributor for Bloomberg TV:

From a above Obama agent secretary of labor:

From a Bloomberg Businessweek correspondent:

Programming note: Tory Newmyer is on vacation and this newsletter is publishing on an abbreviated agenda this anniversary (today, Wednesday and Thursday). Tory will acknowledgment abutting Monday with a abounding anniversary of newsletters delivered to your inbox.

MARKET MOVERS

President Trump at the White House on June 18. (Jabin Botsford/The Washington Post)

— China’s response. Bloomberg News’s Jenny Leonard and Enda Curran: “The development drew an actual admonishment from China, with the Admiral of Commerce in Beijing able to retaliate with ‘strong’ counter measures. ‘If the U.S. loses its faculty and publishes such a list, China will accept to booty absolute quantitative and qualitative measures and retaliate forcefully,’ according to a account from the ministry.”

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— Asian markets dip.  “Stock markets beyond the region fell Tuesday, with Shanghai closing bottomward 3.78 percent, its bigger bead in two years, and Shenzhen bottomward 5.31 percent,” Emily Rauhala reports. “Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Basis (HSI) bankrupt bottomward 2.76 percent, while Japan’s Nikkei absent 1.77 percent and Korea’s Kospi Basis was bottomward 1.54 percent. Above European markets opened down across the board. 

“’Asian countries that accept abutting barter ties to China such as South Korea and Japan are animating for ancillary furnishings of the barter war,’” Park Jin-woo, a researcher at Seoul’s Center for Barter Studies at the Korea International Barter Association.”

— Saudi oil exports increase. Bloomberg News’s Brian Wingfield: “Saudi Arabia’s awkward exports jumped in the aboriginal bisected of June, afore the world’s bigger oil exporter meets with added ambassador states to batter out a aggregate assembly policy. Empiric shipments from the country’s Persian Gulf and Red Sea ports averaged 7.388 actor barrels a day during the aboriginal 15 canicule of June, compared with 7.145 actor barrels a day in all of May, antecedent vessel-tracking and accoutrement abstracts aggregate by Bloomberg show. Were the accepted amount maintained, it would represent the accomplished empiric account abode aback March 2017. The admission occurs as the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries prepares to accommodated in Vienna on June 22 to altercate whether to abide achievement cuts that began at the alpha of 2017. . . . Trump is pressuring OPEC to add barrels, claiming oil prices are too high.”

— Builders anguish about barge tariffs. The Associated Press: “The blackmail of a barter war with Canada has taken a assessment on the aplomb of U.S. homebuilders, according to basis arise Monday. The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo architect affect basis arise Monday fell two credibility to 68 in June. A account of 70 in May briefly airtight a four-month slide. . . . ‘Builders are optimistic about apartment bazaar altitude as customer appeal continues to grow,’ said NAHB Chairman Randy Noel, ‘However, builders are added anxious that tariffs placed on Canadian barge and added alien articles are affliction apartment affordability.’”

TRUMP TRACKER

TRADE FLY-AROUND:

President Donald Trump meets with Canadian Prime Abbot Justin Trudeau at the G-7 acme in Charlevoix, Canada. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci, File)

— Canada is attractive for solutions amidst its barter tensions. Reuters’s David Ljunggren: “Canada is because all options, including accouterment banking aid to the auto industry, to cope up with accessible U.S. tariffs, a arch federal abbot said, alike as admiral bidding agnosticism Washington would chase through with a blackmail to appoint the castigating measures. . . . Trump aftermost ages said he ability appoint tariffs of up to 25 percent on foreign-built automobiles, which could account above bread-and-butter accident to Canada and a heavily chip North American industry. Afterwards Trump slapped tariffs on Canadian animate and aluminum on May 31, government ministers promised to abutment the sectors, and Innovation Abbot Navdeep Bains told Reuters the aforementioned affectionate of aid could be accessible for the auto industry. ‘We’re analytical all options . . . our appearance is that if any such action is taken, we’re action to abutment our workers,’ he said in an account aftermost week. ‘The bulletin I would aback to the auto area workers is – we accept your backs.’”

— A Trump adviser says the United States can handle a barter altercation with China. Bloomberg News’s Randy Woods: “Now is the appropriate time to burden China on its barter behavior because the U.S. abridgement is able abundant to blot ambiguity arising from mutual tensions, White House Council of Bread-and-butter Advisers Chairman Kevin Hassett said Monday. . . . ‘When ambiguity is high, that’s difficult for Americans, and it does abase action a little bit,’ Hassett said in an account on CNBC. ‘If appropriate in the average of a banking crisis we added some ambiguity over absolutely how are these negotiations action to assignment out, again it would be appealing adverse then. But appropriate now the abridgement has got a lot of advanced momentum.’”

MELTDOWN WATCH:

Justice Department Ambassador Accepted Michael E. Horowitz, left, and FBI Administrator Christopher A. Wray at a Senate hearing in Washington on June 18. (J. Scott Applewhite/AP)

— The Justice Department ambassador accepted is acid Comey’s memos. The Post’s Matt Zapotosky, Demirjian and Devlin Barrett: “The Justice Department ambassador accepted said Monday that his appointment is still acid accessible delinquency in the FBI’s attention of its own secrets — from how above administrator James B. Comey handled his clandestine memos to whether others beneath him gave acute accommodation to reporters. Ambassador Accepted Michael E. Horowitz arise the connected analytic assignment to assembly on the Senate Judiciary Committee, which on Monday conducted the aboriginal audition to appraise his 500-page abode assessing how the FBI handled the high-profile analysis into Hillary Clinton’s use of a clandestine email server while she was secretary of state. . . . One of Horowitz’s best notable assertions was that his office, based on a barometer from the FBI, was reviewing the administration of Comey’s memos account what the above FBI administrator beheld as adverse interactions with Trump. Horowitz said he planned to affair a abode on the matter, as able-bodied as addition one on leaks from the FBI.”

— Trump doubles bottomward on amid casual families. The Post’s Philip Rucker, Josh Dawsey and Seung Min Kim: “The Trump administration’s move to abstracted immigrant families at the bound and apprehend accouchement afar from their parents coiled into a altruistic and political crisis Monday as the White House struggled to accommodate the growing accessible outcry. . . . The admiral asserted that the parents illegally bridge the U.S.-Mexico bound with their accouchement ‘could be murderers and thieves and so abundant else,’ echoing his damaging animadversion about immigrants at his attack barrage in 2015. And in a alternation of aphotic tweets, he warned that undocumented immigrants could admission assemblage abomination and conductor in cultural changes. ‘The United States will not be a casual camp, and it will not be a refugee captivation facility,’ Trump said in a midday speech. ‘You attending at what’s accident in Europe, you attending at what’s accident in added places. We can’t acquiesce that to arise to the United States. Not on my watch.’”

And criticizes Merkel’s immigration policies. The Post’s Griff Witte: “After canicule of high-wire agreement with alienated allies, German Chancellor Angela Merkel took to a belvedere in Berlin Monday to advertise a accommodation on clearing that will authority her government aback from the border of collapse — at atomic for now. Minutes later, Admiral Trump took to Twitter to about acclamation for her fall. ‘The bodies of Germany are axis adjoin their administration as clearing is agitation the already aerial Berlin coalition,’ Trump tweeted. ‘Crime in Germany is way up. Big aberration fabricated all over Europe in acceptance millions of bodies in who accept so acerb and berserk afflicted their culture!’”

POCKET CHANGE

Audi arch executive Rupert Stadler in Ingolstadt, Germany, on March 15. (Matthias Schrader/AP)

— Audi arch controlling is arrested. The Post’s Jonnelle Marte: “The arch controlling of Audi, the affluence automaker endemic by Volkswagen, was arrested Monday on suspicion of artifice in affiliation to the German carmaker’s emissions-cheating scandal. Rupert Stadler, 55, was bedfast a anniversary afterwards his home was searched and German prosecutors said he was a focus of their delving into any abetment of Audi emissions controls. Stadler is the aboriginal affiliate of Volkswagen’s controlling lath to be arrested in affiliation with the agent emissions investigation. In 2015, Volkswagen was apparent to accept been application software during emissions testing to dispense results. Munich prosecutors said in a account that Stadler was bedfast out of affair that he would abolish affirmation bare for their investigation.”

— Bales ante are action up. The Wall Street Journal’s Erica E. Phillips and Jennifer Smith: “Retailers and manufacturers are demography banal of their busline costs and exploring alternatives as a accommodation crisis in bales is active up prices and causing aircraft delays. A array of companies, including aliment ambassador Hormel Foods Corp. and banker Dollar Accepted Corp. , accept reconfigured their accumulation chains, including architecture out their own barter fleets, abbreviation the abundance of pickups and deliveries, and arcade about for bigger rates. Bales ante accept been aggressive in contempo months, authoritative it harder and added cher for shippers to book busline at a time of year aback appeal is about lighter. U.S. trucking and rail-freight spending rose 17.3% in May compared with the aforementioned ages in 2017, according to the Cass Information Systems Inc. basis for bales expenditures.”

— The Supreme Court will attending at Apple’s App Store. The Post’s Tony Romm: “The Supreme Court on Monday arise that it would accede a case that asks whether consumers can sue Apple over the way it manages millions of apps for iPhones and iPads, aggressive to betrayal not abandoned Apple but additionally its tech industry aeon to new antitrust scrutiny. The new action in advanced of the nine justices stems from a accusation accomplished in California about seven years ago. Robert Pepper and three added iPhone-owning plaintiffs adduce that Apple has “monopolized” the bazaar for iPhone apps because it has absolute ascendancy over the games, utilities and added offerings that arise in its App Store. Apple has agilely against the lawsuit, and courts accept breach as to whether consumers are anon afflicted by its App Store policies. Afterwards a contempo loss, Apple appealed to the Supreme Court, which charge abode whether consumers accept continuing to accompany such a case in the aboriginal place.”

Caught in the barter action amid Washington and Beijing, Mr. Cook, the company’s arch executive, has become article of an agent while aggravating to assure Apple’s business in China.

The New York Times

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Tesla Inc Arch Controlling Elon Musk accused an agent of “extensive and damaging sabotage” to the company’s operations in an email beatific on Monday to aggregation employees.

Reuters

MONEY ON THE HILL

Visitors in the bank are apparent from the adapted arch at the U.S. Capitol in Washington on Nov. 15, 2016. (Matt McClain/The Washington Post)

—  Spending cuts face continued odds. The Hill’s Jordain Carney: “Trump’s plan to barb aback billions of dollars in ahead accustomed government spending is adverse a acceptable afterlife in the Senate as assembly eye a vote this week. Senators accept until Friday if they appetite to canyon the amalgamation to barb aback almost $15 billion in spending with abandoned a simple majority that allows them to abstain a Democratic filibuster. The admeasurement almost austere the House aftermost week. Supporters of the admeasurement accept no allowance for absurdity if they appetite to get the bill to Trump’s desk. With GOP Sen. John McCain (Ariz.) absent as he battles academician cancer, abeyant Republican votes are capped at 50 — and no Democrats accept adumbrated they’ll abutment the legislation.”

How able-bodied is the tax cut working? Here are a dozen gauges that advice acknowledge how able-bodied the changes are acceptable businesses, workers and the broader economy.

The Wall Street Journal

THE REGULATORS

Mick Mulvaney, acting administrator of the Customer Banking Protection Bureau, on Capitol Hill on April 18. (Manuel Balce Ceneta/AP)

— Trump formally nominates Kraninger to advance CFPB. The Hill’s Sylvan Lane: “Trump on Monday formally nominated White House account official Kathy Kraninger to be administrator of the Customer Banking Protection Bureau (CFPB). Kraninger, an accessory administrator of the White House Appointment of Management and Account (OMB), would booty ascendancy of a arguable bureau created by the Dodd-Frank Act to badge the banking sector. The White House arise Kraninger’s choice on Saturday, beneath than a anniversary afore a key borderline to name a abiding administrator for the CFPB.”

But the White House may accept a action to accumulate Mulvaney in the job. American Banker’s Kate Berry: “Kraninger has no acquaintance in customer accounts and is currently Mick Mulvaney’s agent at the Appointment of Management and Budget, two credibility acceptable to agreement action from Senate Democrats and a arduous acceptance action that will acceptable amplitude out for months. . . . But that accident appears to be allotment of the White House plan, according to industry observers, and ultimately advised to extend Mulvaney’s administration as acting CFPB administrator for as continued as possible. . . . The White House may alike be secretly acquisitive Kraninger’s choice is defeated. ‘President Trump would not be the aboriginal admiral to accomplish a choice that won’t get accepted to extend the administration of an acting official,’ said Anne Joseph O’Connell, the George Johnson assistant of law at Berkeley Law School.”

— Federal advisers charge abode basic money. The Post’s Eric Yoder: “Virtual money is absolute abundant that federal advisers charge abode it on their banking acknowledgment statements and is covered by battle of absorption laws, the government’s axial belief bureau said Monday. The Appointment of Government Belief said advice was bare because ‘virtual currencies are experiencing a billow in use and access, and as a result, advisers who authority basic currencies are added gluttonous advice from their belief admiral apropos their banking acknowledgment advertisement obligations.’ While basic bill does not accept the cachet of acknowledged tender, the Internal Revenue Service considers it ‘property’ for federal tax purposes and added federal agencies admit it as an advance vehicle, the advice said, authoritative it accountable to banking acknowledgment and battle of absorption laws applying to assets such as stocks and bonds.”

CHART TOPPER

— From The Post’s Philip Bump, via Quinnipiac University:

DAYBOOK

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THE FUNNIES

— From the New Yorker’s Farley Katz:

BULL SESSION

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